Fishability Summary (0–100)
PRIME 75–100 Get on the water now
GOOD 60–74 Worth the drive
FAIR 45–59 Fishable — manage expectations
MARGINAL 30–44 Tough bite likely
TOUGH < 30 Off-color or blown out
Flow State — Steelhead Run Window
Very low Fish hold in the lake, won't move into shallow clear water
Rising Best trigger — fish push in on the rise
Near mean Highest fish activity — flow near historical average
Falling Good as it clears — fish stack in pools on drop
Blown out Off-color, unsafe wading
Water Temp — Migration State
MMT = Major Migration Threshold (40°F)
< 32°F Ice-locked — shore only
32–39°F Pre-MMT · fish staging at mouths
40–45°F MMT · migration begins
45–55°F Peak spawning activity
55–65°F Late run · kelts dropping back
> 65°F Summer — brook trout only
Pressure Trend (3-hr Δ, inHg)
RAPID FALL ≤ −0.10 · active feeding window
FALLING −0.10 to −0.03 · pre-front bite increasing
STABLE −0.03 to +0.03 · baseline activity
RISING +0.03 to +0.10 · steady feeding
RAPID RISE ≥ +0.10 · post-front slowdown
Stream Character
North Shore rivers behave very differently
Spate Lower/mid shore (Knife, Baptism, Manitou) — extreme swings, narrow windows
Lake-Buffered Mid/upper shore (Temperance, Poplar, Brule) — steadier flows, more forgiving
Large Watershed Pigeon — large drainage (600 sq mi), less reactive to local rain
North Shore Note
The run walks up the shore. Fish the Knife in early April,
then move to the Baptism and Manitou
mid-April, then the Temperance/Poplar/Brule
late April–May, and the Pigeon in late May. Water near the
historical mean CFS for the date beats absolute flow numbers as a fish-activity signal.
Always check both water temperature (MMT) and rising/falling trend before driving.